When the Electric Dream Meets Reality: A 2025 Wake-Up Call

Just a year ago, it seemed inevitable—internal combustion was headed for the scrapheap of history, and the world was humming full speed into a glowing, battery-powered utopia. But as spring 2025 dawns, the current mood feels less like a revolution and more like a reality check.

The latest global survey by auditing giant KPMG, canvassing over 910 top automotive executives, reads like a bucket of ice water for anyone still basking in the afterglow of electric optimism. In 2023, forecasts gleamed with projections of electric vehicles commanding up to 70% of the global market by 2030. Today, that number has been unceremoniously halved. The revised average prediction? A modest 40%—and that’s excluding hybrids.

Around the world, the obstacles vary but the theme is consistent. India lacks charging infrastructure so profoundly that one might as well try powering an iPhone with a coconut. Brazil is betting on biofuels—essentially skipping the battery phase and pouring sugarcane straight into the tank. In Japan, hybrids and hydrogen remain the darlings, as lithium-ion batteries are still viewed with the same wariness typically reserved for British winter forecasts.

In the U.S., automakers talk the talk of 30% EV market share. But speak to their own dealership staff, and you'll hear a more grounded take: 22% is considered a stretch. Why? Because consumers aren’t eager to wait 30 minutes to "refuel" a car when they could just top off a gas tank and hit the road.

And then there’s the elephant—or rather, the lithium mine—in the room. Half of the executives surveyed are concerned about securing enough raw materials. Lithium, nickel, cobalt—all increasingly critical and predominantly sourced from China. Which means the EV future may hinge not on engineering, but on geopolitics and Beijing’s five-day forecast.

The dream isn’t dead. But it’s clear now: the road to electrification is longer, bumpier, and far more complicated than it once seemed.