Forecast: Electric Vehicle Sales in China to Surpass Internal Combustion Cars This Year

According to various sources, electric vehicle (EV) sales in China are set to account for more than half of the world’s largest car market this year if current trends continue. By the end of last year, Chinese consumers purchased an estimated 12 million electric vehicles—20% more than in 2023. If this growth rate persists, China will achieve its electric mobility goals a full decade ahead of Europe’s planned timeline.

In 2020, the Chinese government set a target to increase the market share of electric vehicles to 50% by 2035. At the current pace, this milestone will be reached as early as 2025.

By 2034, annual EV sales in China are projected to reach 18 million units. Meanwhile, demand for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles is expected to decline sharply, falling below three million units annually, according to several expert forecasts.

Hybrid vehicles are also gaining popularity. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are expected to set new sales records in 2025, and by 2033, their annual sales are forecasted to exceed six million units. Traditional gasoline-electric hybrids are predicted to achieve sales volumes of between 730,000 and one million units per year.

The decline of the ICE vehicle market is also accompanied by a significant drop in the market share of foreign automakers in China. Local consumers are increasingly favoring domestic brands. By 2024, the market share of foreign-made vehicles had fallen to just 37%, compared to 64% in 2020.